Keywords
macroeconomic threats
martial law
multivariate regression analysis
unemployment
informal employment
How to Cite
Abstract
The Russian-Ukrainian war, initiated in 2014 and escalated into a full-scale invasion in 2022, has posed significant macroeconomic challenges to Ukraine’s economic security. This study aims to model the impact of the macroeconomic environment on Ukraine’s economic security under martial law conditions using multivariate regression analysis. The analysis is based on 12 macroeconomic indicators spanning 2003–2023, including unemployment rates, inflation, shadow economy levels, balance of payments, informal employment, and the GDP growth rate gap. The findings reveal that during the war period (2014–2023), key threats – such as unemployment (Okun’s coefficient: –2.6%), balance of payments (–1.1%), informal employment (–3.8%), inflation (–0.54%), and the GDP growth rate gap (–0.52%) – had a statistically significant negative impact on the chain index of real GDP. Compared to the pre-war period (2004–2013), the war period is characterized by heightened GDP volatility (10.7% versus 7.1%), underscoring the destabilizing effect of the conflict. The economic decline in 2022 (–28.8% GDP) represents the deepest contraction in the studied period, highlighting the critical level of threats. The study identifies a shift in the structure of threats. While the shadow economy and unemployment dominated in the pre-war period, informal employment emerged as a significant factor during the war. The conclusions emphasize the need for targeted economic policies aimed at reducing unemployment, formalizing the economy, stabilizing prices, and enhancing global competitiveness. The multivariate model provides a robust tool for quantitatively assessing economic security, which can be utilized to develop strategies for economic recovery and strengthening Ukraine’s resilience amid prolonged conflict. The results hold practical value for government institutions and contribute to a deeper theoretical understanding of economic security under wartime conditions.
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