Keywords
shadow sector
illegal activity
shadow scheme
economic crisis
financial discipline
de-shadowing
How to Cite
Abstract
The article analyzes the war’s influence in Ukraine on the shadow economy and scrutinizes the factors that fostered its expansion or transformation during wartime. Specific focus is given to the economic structural changes triggered by the war. The study’s objective is to identify the full-scale war’s effects on the scale, structure, and dynamics of Ukraine’s shadow economy, recognize key factors supporting its expansion under martial law, and locate possible areas of de-shadowing during wartime and post-war economic recovery. In the course of the research, general scientific methods were used: analysis and synthesis; comparative analysis; induction and deduction; statistical analysis; graphical method; abstract and logical method. Data collection included examining market trends and assessing scientific resources. The concept, traits, and structure of the shadow economy are established. The central components of the growth and spread of the shadow economy are determined. The conditions of the shadow economy in Ukraine before the full-scale invasion were explored. The current state and trends of changes in the level of Ukraine’s shadow economy throughout 2014–2024 are analyzed. The impact of the war on fiscal stability; tax compliance and shifts in the structure of the shadow sector during the war are identified. The main manifestations of the shadow economy during martial law, specifically in particular sectors, are explored. Focus centers on administrative, tax, and legal strategies to curb shadowing. The challenges are pinpointed, and approaches to de-shadowing the Ukrainian economy during wartime and post-war rebuilding are suggested. Conclusions indicate that investigating this subject is fundamental to developing an impactful state policy, designed to lessen damaging effects, augment budget revenue, and foster a transparent business environment. Moreover, the study’s findings are crucial for anticipating post-war economic revitalization prospects, assessing potential threats, and defining state regulation priorities; examining the scope of the shadow economy during war is a key step toward building a firm, transparent, and viable economy in Ukraine.
References
1. Ivashova, L. M., Shevchenko, N. I., & Vynohradova, N. L. (2022). Osoblyvosti realizatsii antykoruptsiinoi polityky ta protydii tinovomu sektoru ekonomiky u svitli yevrointehratsiinykh prahnen Ukrainy [Peculiarities of Implementation of Anti-Corruption Policy and Counteraction to the Shadow Economy in the Light of Ukraine’s European Integration Aspirations]. Mekhanizmy publichnoho upravlinnia – Mechanisms of Public administration, 3(34), 40–49. https://doi.org/10.32782/2310-9653-2022-3.6 (in Ukrainian).
2. Podmazko, O. M. (2023). Makroekonomichna rezultatyvnist protsesu zmenshennia tinovoho sektora ekonomiky Ukrainy [Macroeconomic efficiency of the process of reducing the shadow economy of Ukraine]. Investytsii: praktyka ta dosvid, (12), 95–100. https://doi.org/10.32702/2306-6814.2023.12.95 (in Ukrainian).
3. Pererva, P., Romanchyk, T., Tkachov, M., & Hryshko, N. (2022). Dvoistyi kharakter vplyvu tinovoi ekonomiky na riven ekonomichnoi bezpeky [The dual nature of the shadow economy’s impact on economic security]. Bulletin of the National Technical University “Kharkiv Polytechnic Institute”. Ekonomichni nauky, (1), 63–69. https://doi.org/10.20998/2519-4461.2022.1.63 (in Ukrainian).
4. Tiutiunyk, I. V., Zolkover, A. O., Liulov, O. V., & Lieonov, S. V. (2020). Suchasnyi stan ta tendentsii rozvytku tinovoho sektoru ekonomiky [Current state and trends of the shadow economy]. Economics: Time Realities, 3(49), 47–54. http://doi.org/10.15276/ETR.03.2020.6 (in Ukrainian).
5. Prodan, T. Ya., & Shvets, Ya. V. (2024). Ekonomichni aspekty tinovoi ekonomiky ta rehulyatyvna polityka [Economic aspects of the shadow economy and regulatory policy]. In O. M. Savastieieva (Ed.), Doslidzhennia finansovykh instytutsii ta instrumentiv rozvytku derzhavy, terytorii ta subiektiv hospodariuvannia: Teoretychni, metodolohichni ta praktychni aspekty (pp. 96–98). Odesa: Odeskyi natsionalnyi universytet im. I. I. Mechnykova. https://surli.cc/itnogw (in Ukrainian)
6. Akymenko, O. Yu., Andarak, V. S., & Rohova, I. S. (2024). Vplyv tinovoi ekonomiky na optymizatsiiu podatkovoi systemy ta konkurentospromozhnist pidpryiemstv [The impact of the shadow economy on the optimization of the tax system and the competitiveness of enterprises]. Naukovyi visnyk Polissia – Scientific Herald of Polissya, 2 (29), 335–358. https://doi.org/10.25140/2410-9576-2024-2(29)-335-358 (in Ukrainian).
7. Khalymonyk, K. V., & Fartushnyi, I. D. (2022). Vplyv voiennoho stanu na problemu tinovoi ekonomiky v Ukraini [The Impact of Martial Law on the Shadow Economy in Ukraine]. Efektyvna ekonomika, (10). http://doi.org/10.32702/2307-2105.2022.10.45 (in Ukrainian).
8. Sharyi, V., Doroshenko, Ya., & Sharyi, I. (2025). Prychyny vynyknennia ta vplyv tinovoi ekonomiky na ekonomichnu bezpeku derzhavy [Causes and impact of the shadow economy on the economic security of the state]. In N. Priamukhina, O. Chaltseva, & I. Matsyshyna (Eds.), Publichna polityka v umovakh viiny ta mizhnarodnykh vyklykiv [Public policy in times of war and international challenges] (pp. 74–79). Vinnytsia: Donetskyi natsionalnyi universytet imeni Vasylia Stusa. https://jppasa.donnu.edu.ua/article/view/17174/17069 (in Ukrainian)
9. Somova, V. O., & Fursa, V. A. (2022). Sutnist i struktura tinovoi ekonomiky [The essence and structure of the shadow economy]. In Aktualni pytannia zabezpechennia finansovoi bezpeky derzhavy v umovakh hlobalizatsii [Topical issues of ensuring the financial security of the state in the context of globalization] (pp. 61–63). Kharkiv: KhNUVS. https://dspace.univd.edu.ua/bitstreams/34b1d949-bd18-4bb2-b38a-6c6243913c47/download (in Ukrainian).
10. Dotsenko, A.Iu. (2020). Sutnist, peredumovy vynyknennia ta naslidky tinovoi ekonomiky v suchasnomu sviti [The essence, preconditions and consequences of the shadow economy in the modern world]. Scientific notes of Taurida National V.I. Vernadsky University Series: Economy and Management, 31(70–2), 95–101. https://doi.org/10.32838/2523-4803/70-2-16 (in Ukrainian).
11. Sheremeta, D. (2020). Tinova ekonomika Ukrainy v 2020 rotsi stanovyla tretynu ofitsiinoho VVP [Ukraine’s shadow economy accounted for a third of official GDP in 2020]. Glavcom. https://glavcom.ua/news/tinova-ekonomika-ukrajini-v-2020-roci-stanovila-tretinu-oficiynogo-vvp-765664.html (in Ukrainian).
12. Skilky-skilky? (2022). Chastka tinovoi ekonomiky u 2021 rotsi zrosla do 32% vid VVP [The share of the shadow economy increased to 32% of GDP in 2021]. https://skilky-skilky.info/chastka-tinovoi-ekonomiky-u-2021-rotsi-zrosla-do-32-vid-vvp/ (in Ukrainian).
13. Katyshev, K. (2024). U Radi otsinyly masshtaby tinovoi ekonomiky [The Rada assessed the scale of the shadow economy]. https://ua.korrespondent.net/business/economics/4723648-u-radi-otsinyly-masshtaby-tinovoi-ekonomiky (in Ukrainian).
14. Ministry of Economy. (2022). Tendentsii tinovoi ekonomiky [Тенденції тіньової економіки]. Ministerstvo ekonomiky Ukrainy. https://me.gov.ua/Documents/List?lang=uk-UA&id=e384c5a7-6533-4ab6-b56f-50e5243eb15a&tag=TendentsiiTinovoiEkonomiki (in Ukrainian).
15. Skrypnyk, H., Deminska, D., & Dudnyk, M. (2024). Vplyv viiny na publichni finansy ta upravlinnia: vyklyky ta rishennia [The impact of war on public finance and governance: challenges and solutions]. Ekonomika ta suspilstvo – Economy and Society, (69). https://doi.org/10.32782/2524-0072/2024-69-87 (in Ukrainian).
16. International Monetary Fund. (2023, April 5). Posered viiny Ukraina zberihaie makroekonomichnu stabilnist i rozpochynaie reform [In the midst of war, Ukraine maintains macroeconomic stability and launches reforms]. https://www.imf.org/uk/News/Articles/2023/04/05/cf-amid-war-ukraine-is-maintaining-macroeconomic-stability-and-embarking-on-reforms (in Ukrainian).
17. Kostyshyn, N., & Yakovets, T. (2022). Oblikovo-podatkova systema v umovakh voiennoho stanu: yak diiaty ta, yaki naslidky [Accounting and tax system under martial law: how to act and what are the consequences]. Visnyk Ekonomiky, (2), 99–110. https://doi.org/10.35774/visnyk2022.02.099 (in Ukrainian).
18. Herasymenko, Yu. S. (n.d.). Zminy rynku pratsi Ukrainy pid chas viiny [Changes in the Ukrainian labor market during the war]. https://surli.cc/pieuyp (in Ukrainian).
19. Demeshko, M. V. (2017). Diialnist neprobutkovykh orhanizatsii yak dzherelo vidmyvannia koshtiv [Activities of non-profit organizations as a source of money laundering]. In Tinʹova ekonomika: svitovi tendentsii ta ukrainsʹki realii: materialy mizhvidomchoi nauk.-prakt. konferentsii (Kyiv, 23 chervnia 2017 r.) (pp. 189–191). Kyiv: Nats. akad. vnutr. sprav. https://elar.navs.edu.ua/bitstreams/263f11a3-4775-4f43-bd89-5e05c469cc97/download (in Ukrainian).
20. Yanyshyn, Ya. S., Dudiak, R. P., & Vovk, O.-V. M. (2023). Tinova ekonomika v Ukraini ta yii determinant [The shadow economy in Ukraine and its determinants]. Scientific Messenger of LNU of Veterinary Medicine and Biotechnologies. Series Economical Sciences, 25(101), 22–30. https://doi.org/10.32718/nvlvet-e10103 (in Ukrainian).
21. Lashchuk, Ye. (2024). Yakymy ye naibilshi skhemy tinovoi ekonomiky Ukrainy? [What are the largest schemes of the shadow economy in Ukraine?]. Interfax-Ukraine. https://interfax.com.ua/news/blog/1025298.html (in Ukrainian).
22. Hetman O. (2024). Na yakykh skhemakh tinovoi ekonomiky derzhava vtrachaie naibilshe? [On which schemes of the shadow economy does the state lose the most?]. Ekonomichna pravda. https://epravda.com.ua/columns/2024/10/31/721290 (in Ukrainian).
23. Oziumenko, Ye.Iu. (2024). Pravove zabezpechennia detinizatsii ekonomiky: dosvid krain YeS [Legal support for the de-shadowing of the economy: the experience of EU countries]. Analitychno-porivnialne pravoznavstvo – Analytical and Comparative Jurisprudence, (4), 209–215. https://doi.org/10.24144/2788-6018.2024.04.34 (in Ukrainian).
24. Ishchenko, A., & Voloshenko, K. (2023). Suchasni praktyky implementatsii metodiv detinizatsii natsionalnykh ekonomik [Modern practices of implementing methods of de-shadowing national economies]. Mizhnarodna ekonomichna polityka – International Economic Policy, 1(38), 117–143. https://doi.org/10.33111/iep.2023.38.06 (in Ukrainian).
25. Honcharuk, V. L. (2024). Stratehiia pravovoho rehuliuvannia borotby z tinovoiu ekonomikoiu: perspektyvy rozvytku ta vdoskonalennia [Strategy of Legal Regulation of Combating the Shadow Economy: Prospects for Development and Improvement]. Kyivskyi chasopys prava – Kyiv Journal of Law, (4), 118–124. https://doi.org/10.32782/klj/2024.4.16 (in Ukrainian).
26. Suvorova, S.H., & Kulhanik, O.M. (2023). Tinova ekonomika v u kraini: stan ta shliakhy podolannia [Shadow economy in Ukraine: State and ways to overcome it]. Tsyfrova ekonomika ta ekonomichna bezpeka – Digita economy and economic security, 8(8), 168–172. https://doi.org/10.32782/dees.8-28 (in Ukrainian).
27. Tarasenko, O., & Peretiatko, V. (2021). Detinizatsiia ekonomiky yak sposib zbilshennia podatkovykh nadkhodzhen do biudzhetu [De-shadowing the economy as a way to increase tax revenues]. Ekonomika ta suspilstvo – Economy and Society, (25). https://doi.org/10.32782/2524-0072/2021-25-75 (in Ukrainian).
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Copyright (c) 2025 Borys Sakhnevych, Iryna Bezuhlova, Oleksandr Fedotov