Abstract
This article provides a comprehensive analysis of financial stability and the fiscal and monetary factors underpinning Ukraine’s economic security amid the martial law imposed on February 24, 2022, as a result of the Russian Federation’s full-scale aggression. The study covers the period from 2022 to 2026 and is based on the systematization of macrofinancial indicators, an assessment of fiscal balance, an analysis of the structure of international financing, and the implications of monetary policy. The study draws on official data from the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the National Bank of Ukraine, the European Commission, and other institutions. It was found that following a 28.8% decline in real GDP in 2022, the financial system adapted to the shocks of the war and entered a phase of gradual macroeconomic stabilization. The key factors in maintaining financial stability were large-scale international financial and military support, the NBU’s tight monetary policy to control inflation, business adaptability, and the digitization of government financial services. At the same time, systemic financial and structural risks remain: a high government budget deficit, significant dependence on external concessional financing, energy vulnerability, and a shortage of qualified personnel. Strategic directions for strengthening fiscal and budgetary security are substantiated, including the diversification of capital-raising sources, support for the defense-industrial sector, incentives to encourage the return of the labor force, and the deepening of European integration. It is concluded that Ukraine’s financial system remains vulnerable during the war but demonstrates a high level of adaptability, which lays the groundwork for reconstruction provided that the security environment stabilizes.
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