THE IMPACT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL BUSINESS IN UKRAINE

Abstract

The relevance of the study is determined by the necessity to ensure the resilience of small businesses in Ukraine under conditions of increasing economic and institutional uncertainty caused by global market fluctuations, war-related risks, shortage of financial resources, and structural changes in public support policy. It has been established that uncertainty increasingly affects not only the dynamics of production but also the innovative activity, financial stability, and competitiveness of small enterprises. The purpose of the article is to determine the impact of uncertainty on the development of small businesses in Ukraine and to substantiate the directions for enhancing their adaptive resilience in a volatile economic environment. To achieve this goal, the essence of the uncertainty phenomenon was studied, the factors of its formation were analyzed, the consequences for efficiency, innovativeness, financial sustainability, and competitive advantages of SMEs were assessed, the main problems were identified, and practical recommendations for improving the sector’s adaptability were developed. Research methodology is based on the combination of systemic, structural-functional, and comparative approaches. The methods of logical generalization, economic-statistical analysis, induction, and modeling were used. The information base included data from the EBRD, OECD, UNDP, the National Bank of Ukraine, and the Centre for Economic Strategy, which made it possible to form a comprehensive understanding of the state of small business under wartime economic transformation. Research results. It has been established that the main challenges for SMEs are demand volatility, rising resource costs, regulatory instability, limited access to financing, and personnel shortages. It has been proven that the adaptability of enterprises increases in proportion to the level of digitalization, integration into partnership networks, and diversification of financial instruments. It was found that enterprises implementing automation demonstrate greater resilience to market fluctuations and faster recovery of liquidity. Conclusions. It has been proven that the effective functioning of small businesses under uncertainty requires institutional stability, digital transformation, and the development of partnership networks. The creation of a unified electronic environment for business support, the expansion of guarantee-based lending, and the establishment of regional centers of digital competence are recommended. Prospects for further research are related to the development of integrated indicators of small business adaptability, modeling of entrepreneurs’ behavioral strategies under crisis conditions, and quantitative assessment of the impact of digital innovations on the financial sustainability of the sector.