GLOBAL RISKS OF LOCAL CONFLICT ESCALATION IN THE WORLD SYSTEM OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Abstract

The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the global risks of escalation of local conflicts in the transformed environment of international relations. The relevance of the study is determined by the increasing frequency and intensity of regional conflicts that have the potential to turn into large-scale crises with cross-border consequences, as well as the evolution of the instruments of their influence – from classical military-political mechanisms to hybrid forms that cover informational, economic, technological, and humanitarian dimensions. The purpose of the article is to identify the main factors of escalation of local conflicts to the global level, to typologize the forms of manifestation of such threats in the modern international system, and to analyze possible strategies to contain their spread. The study uses elements of structural-functional analysis, network modeling, index risk assessment, as well as conceptual provisions of ontological security theory and approaches to analyzing superpower strategies in regional conflicts. The research methods include comparative political analysis (to identify similarities and differences in the impact of various conflicts on global security), a systemic-structural approach (to model the typology of threats), content analysis of media sources (to quantitatively measure escalation trends), and case analysis of conflicts in Ukraine, Taiwan, and the Middle East (to identify patterns in the spread of crises). The results of the study demonstrate that modern local conflicts tend to escalate vertically due to technological asymmetry, the use of information manipulation, the involvement of allies, and the disruption of energy, food, and institutional security. The author proposes a typology of escalation factors (institutional-legal, information-technological, geo-economic, alliance, and humanitarian), which allows for the systematization of risks and their application to predict potentially threatening hotspots. The conclusions emphasize that effective prevention of global conflicts requires not only reform of security institutions (in particular the UN), but also the construction of a new multipolar model of security regulation that takes into account technological ethics, economic interdependence, and transnational responsibility.