STRATEGIC PLANNING FOR POST-WAR RECONSTRUCTION OF UKRAINE’S CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE: EVOLVING APPROACHES, FINANCIAL GAPS, AND DIGITAL TOOLS

Abstract

The article examines the evolution of strategic planning for the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine’s critical infrastructure in the context of the ongoing war. Based on the analysis of the Rapid Damage and Recovery Needs Assessment Reports (RDNA1–RDNA4), a trend towards a steady increase in direct losses was identified – from $252 billion in 2022 to $176 billion in 2024, as well as long-term recovery needs over ten years to $524 billion. It was found that the housing, transport and energy sectors suffered the greatest losses, and 72% of the damage was geographically concentrated in five frontline regions and Kyiv region. Key strategic documents at the national level were reviewed – the Law of Ukraine “On Critical Infrastructure”, the Categorization Methodology, the National Critical Infrastructure Protection Plan (September 2023) and the DREAM digital ecosystem. Special attention is paid to the analysis of the financial gap: for 2025, the financing needs are $15 billion, of which only $5.5 billion have been provided, and the deficit reaches $9.96 billion (over 60% of the needs). The position of former Prime Minister D. Shmyhal on the need to confiscate frozen Russian assets as the main source of reconstruction is highlighted. It is proven that the lack of a single nationwide recovery plan with legal force, the low absorption capacity of authorities (expenditures at the level of 1% of the budget in the first quarter of 2025) and the incomplete use of DREAM digital tools create systemic bureaucratic inertia, which significantly complicates the coordination of donors and local authorities. Recommendations are proposed to adopt a legally binding national recovery plan, ensure full transparency of projects in DREAM, intensify negotiations on the confiscation of Russian assets, and introduce personal liability for the use of funds.