Keywords
infestation
grain quality
mycotoxins
ISO standards
GAFTA
FOSFA
Codex Alimentarius
grain export
econometric model
FOB
How to Cite
Abstract
The stability of grain quality parameters is a crucial prerequisite for ensuring the competitive position of domestic exports in the world market. The main objective of the study is to conduct an economic analysis of the impact of effective laboratory quality control of grain, focusing on pest infestation levels and other important quality parameters, on the determination of export prices and related discounts under free-on-board (FOB) contracts. The study intends to propose new methodological approaches and an econometric forecasting model aimed at increasing the accuracy of quality assessment and reducing economic risks for grain exporters. A variety of methodologies were used to facilitate this broad empirical study. These include standardized quality control protocols that comply with international standards, such as ISO, GAFTA, FOSFA and Codex Alimentarius, as well as rapid analytical methods (e.g., LFA, NIR/FT-NIR, machine vision, HSI) and advanced laboratory analyses (e.g., LC-MS/MS, HPLC, PCR). This is complemented by sophisticated econometric modeling. The scope of this study includes a systematic analysis of how critical attributes, namely moisture content, protein level, gluten content, vitreousness, impurity percentage, contamination level, and mycotoxin concentration, affect the formation of price discounts and potential economic losses incurred by exporters. The study uses both linear and log-linear regression models to predict the predicted FOB price and quantify discount adjustments, all dependent on laboratory-verified quality indicators. Finally, the authors advocate an integrated quality control paradigm. This approach combines standardized sampling protocols, automated inspection systems, and multi-level analytical algorithms to increase the accuracy of the assessment and reduce financial losses. Such a robust framework is designed to strengthen the competitiveness of Ukrainian grain exports in the global market.
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