Keywords
Belarus
military integration
NATO
Union State
European Security
military threats
nuclear blackmail
How to Cite
Abstract
The article examines the process of transforming the Republic of Belarus into a military bridgehead for the Russian Federation and identifies threats to NATO and European security associated with this process. The relevance of the study is determined by the significant strengthening of Russian-Belarusian military integration after 2020, the growing aggressiveness of Russia's policy against NATO member states and Ukraine, and the active militarization of Belarusian territory. The purpose of this study is a comprehensive analysis of Belarus's transformation into Russia's military bridgehead through the prism of military integration between both states, identification of key threats to NATO and European security, as well as analysis of potential consequences from the possible deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory. The study employs methods of synthesis and content analysis to systematize data on Russian-Belarusian military integration, as well as to identify threats to NATO and European security. Methods of systematic and comparative analysis were applied to study the military integration of the two states as a holistic phenomenon and to identify key changes in the process. As a result of the study, it was established that Russian-Belarusian military integration transformed from limited cooperation to the virtually complete absorption of Belarus's military sovereignty by Russia after 2020. Furthermore, it is confirmed that the factor of possible deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus creates significant threats to European security and expands Russia's capabilities to conduct nuclear blackmail against NATO states and Ukraine. The study identifies current threats to NATO and European security from the Russian-Belarusian alliance, such as full-scale Russian aggression from Belarusian territory, organization of military provocations, hybrid operations, and nuclear intimidation. A separate list of recommendations for NATO and European states regarding countering the identified threats was developed. The conclusions confirm that through intensive military integration, Russia has indeed transformed Belarus into its own military bridgehead, which creates substantial threats to NATO and destabilizes the European security architecture.
References
1. Topolski, I. (2022). Military presence of the Russian Federation in the Republic of Belarus. Rocznik Instytutu Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej, 20(2), 75–91. https://doi.org/10.36874/riesw.2022.2.4
2. Rácz, A. (2022). Becoming a military district: Russia-Belarus military cooperation since 2020. European Union Institute for Security Studies. https://www.iss.europa.eu/publications/briefs/becoming-military-district
3. Goltsov, A. (2022). Biloruskyi vektor u neoimperskii heostratehii Rosiiskoi Federatsii [Belarusian vector in the neo-imperial geostrategy of the Russian Federation]. Aktualni problemy polityky – Actual Problems of Politics, (70), 89–94. https://doi.org/10.32782/app.v70.2022.14 (in Ukrainian)
4. Kazak, A., & Mahda, Y. (2023). “Biloruskyi balkon” yak faktor zahrozy: viiskovyi, informatsiinyi ta hibrydnyi vymiry [“Belarusian Balcony” as a threat factor: military, information and hybrid dimensions]. Obrii drukarstva – Printing Horizon, 2(14), 267–281. https://doi.org/10.20535/2522-1078.2023.2(14).295423 (in Ukrainian)
5. Rad, P., & Chornogor, I. (2025). How Russia-Belarus integration challenges regional security. Foreign Policy Council "Ukrainian Prism". https://prismua.org/en/38750-2/
6. Rogozińska, A., & Olech, A. K. (2020). The Russian Federation's military bases abroad (pp. 15–17). Institute of New Europe. https://ine.org.pl/en/the-russian-federations-military-bases-abroad/
7. Wyczawski, T., & Dudek, M. (2024). NATO’s regional security in the context of Military-Defensive Cooperation between Russia and Belarus: A Polish perspective on Eastern European stability. Acta Humanitatis., 2(2), 138–166. https://doi.org/10.5709/ah-02.02.2024-04
8. Deen, B., Roggeveen, B., & Zweers, W. (2021). An ever closer union? Ramifications of further integration between Belarus and Russia (pp. 6-7). Clingendael Institute. https://www.clingendael.org/pub/2021/an-ever-closer-union/
9. Oksentiuk, A., Rad, P., Sinauk, M., & Chornogor, I. (2025). “Allies”: Military cooperation between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus. Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism”. https://prismua.org/en/985457-2/
10. Masters, J. (2023). The Belarus-Russia Alliance: an axis of autocracy in Eastern Europe. Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/belarus-russia-alliance-axis-autocracy-eastern-europe
11. Dyner, A. M., & Terlikowski, M. (2023). The Belarusian vector of the Russian threat to NATO. The Polish Institute of International Affairs. https://pism.pl/publications/the-belarusian-vector-of-the-russian-threat-to-nato
12. Dyner, A. M. (2022). Belarus Announces the Formation of a Regional Forces Group with Russia. The Polish Institute of International Affairs. https://www.pism.pl/publications/belarus-announces-the-formation-of-a-regional-forces-group-with-russia
13. Defense Express. (2023). More Than 10 russia’s Military Echelons Already In Belarus: Their Location And Force. https://en.defence.ua.com/analysis/more_than_10_russias_military_echelons_already_in_belarus_their_location_and_force-4625.html
14. RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty. (2023). Belarus dismantling three Russian training grounds, satellite images show. https://www.rferl.org/a/belarus-dismantling-russian-training-grounds-satellite-images/32492923.html
15. Taranov, A. (2025). New security arrangements between Moscow and Minsk cement Russia’s influence (Part 1). The Jamestown Foundation. https://jamestown.org/program/new-security-arrangements-between-moscow-and-minsk-cement-russias-influence-part-1/
16. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. (2024). Dogovor mezhdu Rossijskoj Federeciej i Respublikoj Belarus’ o garantiyakh bezopasnosti v ramkakh Soyuznogo gosudarstva [Treaty between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus on security guarantees within the Union State]. https://www.mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/international_contracts/international_contracts/2_contract/62699/ (in Russian)
17. Yevropeiska Pravda. (2023). Rosiia rozmistyt v Bilorusi taktychnu yadernu zbroiu [Russia to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus]. https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/news/2023/03/25/7158664/ (in Ukrainian)
18. Karach, O. (2024). Nuclear weapons in Belarus: What we know. ICAN. https://www.icanw.org/nuclear_weapons_in_belarus_what_we_know
19. Barros, G. (2025). Russia's Quiet Conquest: Belarus (p. 35). Institute for the Study of War. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russias-quiet-conquest-belarus
20. Taranov, A. (2025). Russia develops infrastructure for operational use of tactical nuclear weapons from Belarusian territory. The Jamestown Foundation. https://jamestown.org/program/russia-develops-infrastructure-for-operational-use-of-tactical-nuclear-weapons-from-belarusian-territory/
21. RBC-Ukraine. (2025). Russia to deploy Oreshnik missile system in Belarus by year’s end, says top official. https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russia-to-deploy-oreshnik-missile-system-1748461765.html
22. Espreso. (2025). Svidchen toho, shcho yaderna zbroia RF postiino dyslokuietsia na terytorii Bilorusi, nemaie, – analityk Rad [There is no evidence that Russian nuclear weapons are permanently deployed on the territory of Belarus, – analyst Rad]. https://espreso.tv/svit-svidchen-togo-shcho-yaderna-zbroya-rf-postiyno-dislokuetsya-na-teritorii-bilorusi-nemae-analitik-rad (in Ukrainian)
23. NATO 2022 Strategic Concept (2022). North Atlantic Treaty Organization. https://www.nato.int/strategic-concept/
24. Robert Lansing Institute. (2025). The Suwałki Corridor Crisis: An analysis of a possible Russian offensive and NATO response scenarios. https://lansinginstitute.org/2025/05/27/the-suwalki-corridor-crisis-an-analysis-of-a-possible-russian-offensive-and-nato-response-scenarios/
25. Beznosiuk, M. (2025). Russia marshals its strength for Zapad-2025. CEPA. https://cepa.org/article/russia-marshals-its-strength-for-zapad-2025/
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Copyright (c) 2025 Anatolii Chernysh