Keywords
public governance
investment policy
construction
construction sector
capital investment
direct investment
public investment
How to Cite
Abstract
The article analyzes the level of investment in Ukraine’s construction sector during the period 2022–2024 and presents a forecast of investment trends in 2025, taking into account the impact of the full-scale armed aggression. It has been established that the construction sector plays a system-forming role in the structure of national production and serves as an indicator of the state’s economic activity. It was revealed that the sector’s financing during the studied period was mainly carried out within the framework of recovery projects, public investment projects, and certain targeted restoration and reconstruction initiatives. It is emphasized that the share of construction in Ukraine’s GDP has been showing an upward trend: from UAH 69.3 billion in 2022 to UAH 128.4 billion in 2024. Despite the war, 2022 was marked by the highest annual volume of capital investments in construction—UAH 94.7 billion. The decline in investment activity in 2023 (down to UAH 30.6 billion) was attributed to the redistribution of state resources to defense and humanitarian needs. In 2024, a rise in capital investment volumes to UAH 41.7 billion was recorded, which is associated with the implementation of new government coordination mechanisms. The positive impact of intensified cooperation with international donors on the investment climate in the construction sector was outlined. It was shown that direct investments in the construction industry in 2022 had a negative balance (-USD 166.6 million), indicating significant capital outflow. It is argued that the situation partially stabilized in 2023, with a positive balance of +USD 14.1 million, primarily due to debt instruments. It is clarified that in 2023–2024, investors preferred loans and credits as lower-risk forms of financing. However, 2024 saw a renewed decline in net inflows of direct investments (-USD 32.3 million), highlighting the vulnerability of the investment environment. Attention is drawn to the negative trend in reinvested earnings, which amounted to -USD 51.8 million in 2024, confirming a low level of trust in the institutional capacity of the state. The need for legislative regulation of risks associated with war threats for long-term investment planning is stressed. It is noted that the total volume of direct investments in construction during 2022–2024 increased from USD 811.0 million to USD 1,030.3 million. The main sources of growth were identified as equity participation instruments and debt obligations. It is concluded that effective public investment policy during wartime must be based on adaptability, transparency, low tolerance for corruption, and partnership with the international community. The need for further research aimed at improving institutional mechanisms for supporting investment in Ukraine’s construction sector is confirmed.
References
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